what is the best play from here, page-2

DENUM...

lol...that t4p...couldn't be as bad as that skirt denum, or is that denum skirt?

With your permission however...

I have been playing with the idea of a register raid on GUJ, via both GUJ and GUJO for voting rights...but until I have a better feel for the "numbers", it might not be the way to go, especially given the obvious "friendly" block recently created via the "placement"...lol

Clearly this was a number they felt they needed once all the co-directors and parent were excluded from the voting mix?

But what about INR?

We may well find the INR register is far more vulnerable, with the vast majority in the hands of the parent, co directors or related parties, which rules them out for voting purposes.

Top 5 shareholders hold 482.4m shares, leaving just 10.96m shares in the hands of everyone else and there may well be even more cross ownership that we are not aware of?

Of the top 5, the parent holds 448,432,193 with co directors or their partners holding at least another 1m or so and the rest (some 34m), in the hands of custodial services, only 2.86m of which appear to be non-Indian based.

Is the register vulnerable?

All up, there is just 39m or so shares able to vote...and considering the typical spread in such circumstances and fact most holders are Indian based, we may be down to as little as just 15m active voting shares, if that. Get more than 7.5m of these and you could potentially create a very nast thorn in their side...one might even suggest worthy of "negotiation" as a blocking vote?

About $5m well spent here could hold a punch well beyond it's weight...$10m and you could find yourself become very important?

The offset benefit here is that by raiding the INR register in an attempt to create a block, you concurrently increase the value of your GUJ positions, effectively giving us two bangs for our buck.

If the raid fails...well you have a decent position in INR that will not go to waste and a vastly increased GUJ holding value.

Spend the same amount of money on GUJ however and you may well pick up some 10m-15m shares only...which may or may not be enough to create a block, but in the case of failure will not add overall value to your new INR position?

So...it may well be that a raid on INR will result in a better risk/reward result?

No hurry however...we have not even seen the full bidder statement yet...nor the target statement...nor even the independent experts report, lol, that should be good...so plenty of time to organise a posse.

The dollars will not be a problem if I feel confident I have a handle on the underlying maths here...but no sense moving in if they have their bases well covered?

I might give INR them a call next week?

lol

Cheers!