What is the downside risk ?

I have played with a few scenarios with respect to finance at 60,70,80,90 % and am happy with my projections...

Given all this time waiting, I have looked more at my worst case scenarios to determine possible downside risk.

The scenario for my worst case is NO debt finance = 100% Capital Raise for the US$77M.

A CR at the current SP of $0.15 and AUD/USD 0.75 would see about $103M equity raised with 688M new shares.

With EBITDA of US$33.6M and not debt repayments, after 3% royalties and 30% tax, I see NPAT of AU$30M p.a.

With a PE of 10, a MC would be $300M, divided by 860M shares would provide a SP of $0.35

I know this is not what everybody is looking for (me included) ,but IMO this provides an excellent downside limit to our financial risk.

It is still a 230% return on the current SP in about 12 months !

Does anybody else have any opinions or thoughts for downside risk ?