IMO putting all the current frustration aside regarding ORN`s lagging sp - share dilution - potential portion of project level sale, we are sitting with a market cap of +- 50-60 Mil AU$.
This analogy is focused only on Prieska and excludes any potential value from Fraser range or any new deposits.
Current value of existing infrastructure , ie bulkhead, and underground mine is speculated to hold a value (savings) of +- AU$ 50 Mil, if starting from scratch.
BFS indicates a 10 year mine life (foundation phase)
Funding package required = AU$ 378 Mil, payback period of 3 years from first production. This gives us an expectation at current metal prices over the 10 year life of mine, a resource value incl` all costs should be around AU$1.26 Billion (foundation phase)
With required funding (immediate 2020) coming by way of debt/options or sale of ownership, our nav (albeit debt leveraged) +- AU$ 400 Mil of 1:1 should see the market cap 4 times what it is now (within current parameters). That equates to a sp of roughly 8 cents.
2025 arrives and now payback is completed and we have AU$ 400 Mil value of mine infrastructure and we are sitting with a mineral resource (foundation phase) less 3 years of production, equal to +- AUD$840 Mil NAV is then AU$1.2 Billion, 1:1 on market cap and within current parameters sp is sitting at 46 cents within 5 years!
NB: This basic speculation does not take into account Fraser range and new deposits from current drilling!
Tbh I see the sp a lot higher than AU$1 in 5 years...
GLTAH May we have the patience to see this through...
ORN Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
