I am ~medium term holder (since 2015, and I have 100,000+ shares) so I think I know enough to be dangerous and have certainly rode the rollercoaster over the years - but would love to hear from HotCopper on thoughts on what I think is a missing ongoing strategy by Solvar.
As one other user in another thread mentioned, we are clearly in a low point for Solvar in recent times. Our EPS in FY24 will be lucky to be $0.13 which is frankly back to FY18 levels (6 long years ago).
We have had a medium-term strategy for quite a few years of reaching a loan book of $1 billion, which we are close enough to hitting now. Don't get me wrong, this is a great achievement, and worth celebrating.
But I am sensing no new strategy from Scott and the board apart from:
- A "focus on productivity" - so a little bit of a reduction in costs. Ok, but not super exciting. And how much are we aiming to save?
- Hope for interest rates to go down, while we gouge on the margins a bit. Pray that in FY25 and 26 we can get NPAT back to "historical" levels, which presumably is NPAT $50m or so. Blame it all on macro conditions in the meantime.
- Maybe we will burn some cash on acquisitions, which I'm not sure has not led to a lot of synergies previously - at least that are evident to me.
Scott - if you are reading this, I think we need a grander plan! I'd like to see at the AGM a much more coherent bridge/plan/path to achieve:I hope that I am not told to just wait around for 10 years until the loan book reaches $3 billion!
- 12x valuation (historically, we used to trade 14x/15x - but lets start with 12)
- Tripling (3x) the EPS to at least $0.40 and beyond.
My concerns which I'd like to see better addressed by Scott and the board:
- Everything in our strategy is very bottom line focussed, macro conditions and cost focussed - where is the focus on the top line (distribution, market share, channels, a better product and proposition, retention and churn, product innovation)?
- What is our plan to accelerate to capture more market share from competitors? (we say we currently have only 1%-2% )
- How are we addressing emerging car buying trends (ie direct EV sales from manufactures, vs traditional dealership/broker model?) Are we fit for purpose here? Are we at risk of disintermediation? Or can we better partner with online brands and marketplaces?
- What innovations are we bringing to market to better serve customers? How is that driving growth for the broker channel? What are the best business around the world doing in this space? What are we learning? How do we stay one step ahead?
Love to hear your thoughts. Can't wait until we can all celebrate a $5.00 share price one day soon.
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