Axiom I - on risk
Risk enough to be really worried about the outcome
Play for meaningful stakes; diversification is for wimps
Axiom II - on greed
■ Always take your profit too soon
Control your greed; don't let it control you
Axiom III - on hope
■ When the ship starts to sink, don't pray. Jump
What makes a top-rate poker player - knowing when to fold
Axiom IV - on forecasts
■ Distrust anyone who claims to know the future
And don't let your own reasonable expectations of the future harden into dogmatic certainty
Axiom V - on patterns
■ Don't see order where it does not exist
Most of the time you're dealing with chaos, but that's not dangerous until it seems to look orderly
Axiom VI - on mobility
■ Stay light on your feet
Don't get locked into a way of thinking about investments and don't stick with a situation because you think it 'owes' you something
Axiom VII - on intuition
■ Trust a hunch if you can explain it
And you can explain it if it's consistent with the conclusions you can draw from an area that you have studied in depth
Axiom VIII - on religion and the occult
■ Don't imagine that providence will make you rich
After all, if astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich
Axiom IX - on optimism and pessimism
■ Learn the difference between confidence and optimism
If you are confident, you know how to handle the worst; if you're just optimistic, you don't
Axiom X - on consensus
■ Arrive at your own conclusions
Be deeply sceptical of majority opinion and never follow what look like speculative fads
Axiom XI - on stubbornness
■ Leave stubbornness to others
If a speculation does not succeed first time, forget it. And never average down a losing situation
Axiom XII - on planning
■ Forget long-range planning
All speculative media will change in ways that you cannot imagine
