Jason, you are right. But I'll clarify my position below:
When one discusses property as an investment instrument or vehicle with respect to the asset price cycle (in the case of Australia we have had a prolonged nation-wide price inflation engineered by deliberate policy and recently policy mistakes), it is meaningless to dwell on a particular suburb, street, precinct, region or whether your property is near fantastic amenities or the individual property.
The property market can crash resulting in say Melbourne's median house price falling 50% in 2 years from now let say and it may not matter a bit. In fact, you may even gain in capital.
All it takes is one moron then to pay you the price that you want today and your property has not fallen in price. In fact, the moron can even pay you a premium because his/her parents live next door to you in order toand hence pay you a premium to ensure he /she secures the property.
On the contrary, when house prices trend upward, if your property is rubbish, has terrible neighbours, under power lines, poor amenities, neighbourhood riddled with garbage and crime, you may not even be able to sell at a 80% discount.
I am predicting a whoesale nation-wide downturn.
When I refer to a 40% or 50% fall in median price, it's no different to the REI quoting a rise in median price for a particular city for particular duration.
