What is the potential NPV of Tampu?, page-2

Whilst we await confirmation of the conclusion of in-fill drilling, assays and the resulting Scoping Study and NPV for Tampu, I thought I’d review what we know of the resource to date and reference other kaolin / HPA projects Scoping Studies to fill in any blanks to best guesstimate what the project NPV could be, with the caveat...I am not a financial analyst so if any of you are, and wish to use their NPV calculator, please do, this is a forum at its best which encourages the exchange of knowledge and information. What do we know about Tampu based on current announcements: Resource: Maiden Resource Estimate (MRE) Announcement, 9/09/21:“Total Inferred Mineral Resource of 24.7Mt with an average yield of 53% for 13.1Mt @ 36.5% Al2O3 of <45µm very high quality bright white kaolin with low impurities”.5N+ Purity confirms Tampu as Australia premier specification bright white kaolin deposit for HPA(5N and 4N) feedstock, Announcement 30/06/22: No it does not“

HPA test work results on a 25kg composite (-45µm) sample on behalf of potential offtake partner has confirmed Tampu can achieve 5N+ (99.99957%) Al2O3 purity. There's no detail offered in any this Test Work as to ratio of final product to mass Ore. Critical to viability.

The outstanding results are higher than commercial 5N (99.99906%) and distinguish Tampu as the highest purity kaolin feedstock for HPA compared to its peers. Results also confirm Tampu can produce 5N(99.999%) Al2O3 and 4N (99.99%) Al2O3 HPA using a simplified, low cost & more environmentally friendly method. Conjecture.

Markets:5N+ Purity confirms Tampu as Australia premier specification bright white kaolin deposit for HPA(5N and 4N) feedstock, Announcement 30/06/22: The HPA market includes various technology applications including lithium ion batteries, LED lights and semi-conductors which can attract prices between ~$A40,000 - $A70,000 per tonne.” Hard to believe you'd use those valuations. $30kUS + or - is the currently accepted mark for 4N. And currently there are no Battery makers on the planet using HPA as a Seperator in Li or any other Battery for that matter. Happy to be proven wrong. Name just One?

The Company will leverage its class leading position with a balanced approach, assessing all potential product streams including short-term direct shipping ore (DSO) options and progressing to a high end HPA product that attracts significantly higher prices. There's no DSO Option for HPA, as there is not One Processing Plant commercially producing HPA anywhere on this planet out of feedstock such as this. There won't be for at least a further Three years, and those in the business have Ten's and Hundred's of Millions of Tons of their own” .

“Being such a high purity HPA feedstock, Tampu can easily achieve both 5N & 4N purity through a simplified Ore process. This process will be cheaper and a greener method than other existing flowsheets. Whilst we remain focussed on developing our HPA strategy, in the interim we will look to supply shorter term options, via several different high value product streams to fast-track revenue and maximise Tampu’s production profile.” Let go if it Salty. You'll go Blind.

Note: On 8th April 2021, FYI announced an "Updated DFS and NPV statement” with an NPV of $1.014bn for their HPA project. FYI inputs included a blended price per tonne of $US26,400/tn using a $0.75 AUD:USD rate. The blended rate was the result of a production profile of:8,5000 ktpa @ $US24,0001,500 ktpa @ $US40,000Performing a sanity check on CR9’s HPA range of $A40,000 - $A70,000 / tn and using the AUD:USD of $0.75 as per FYI’s updated NPV statement on 8th April 2021, then the effective range CR9 state equates to $USD30,000 - $USD52,500. FYI. With their backing will more than likely be the first listed company to actually produce commercial quantities of HPA from Ores such as these. I'd say they're Three years out. There are Three other companies (unlisted) that are further advanced than FYI. Demo Plant, and 1kta per annum Plant nearing completion/refinement. These Two are ESG drivers. They're working with their own massive Ore bodies, and Tailing Dumps, Red Bogs, Coal Fly Ash, and yes. For Shit's and Giggle's Cow Dung.

Potential Tampu NPV - Best Guesstimate Based on the above, and as per my inputs below using a rudimentary NPV calculator, my best guesstimate of Tampu NPV is $2.24 bn. Inputs: Production per year & rate / tn:8,500 ktpa @ $US24,0001,500 ktpa @ $US40,000Mine Life:50 years at 10,000 ktpaCR9 has 13.1Mt of high purity HPA, which would equate to 131 yrs, but I couldn't be bothered going that far out. You have no idea what the Ore to Product ratio is! So how can you possibly make Mine life projections?

Capex:$US150mil which is less than FYI ($US202mil) based on a simpler process due to higher purity resource All-In cash Costs:$US1,000 / tn which is way over what FYI have put in their calculation, which was $660/tn, so I am being conservative. As above. You have not even a base case idea. Your numbers have no substance whatsoever! Discount Rate:8%I am no financial analyst, so happy to be corrected on any assumptions or if I have an excel calculation not performing as it should. Disclaimer: This is me pulling information from company announcements and hypothesizing, it's not intended as investment advice. To True!