AKKI---i was in the biz for many years and what you say is usually the case but not necessarily when you are speaking of the world of biotechs. The real way --JFYI---is to analyze all the players in the space and see who invested what-where-and how and how or whether it is required to start the sales cycle up or not. When you know a product market and know it could potentially have sales in the billions the question really is how important it truly is to initiate or ramp up the sales a bit. If AVH sales of ReCell go from 500K per quarter to 1MM per quarter what does that have to do with anything when a year from now or 1 1/2 years from now the FDA may be handing them their certificate?
When the FDA says yes you can sell volumes of ReCell---instead of selling 1 out of 100 surgeons you will be 100 for 100.And they will keep a few in inventory and automatic reorder.
As BD appropriately stated we can potentially do 10-12MM procedures yearly some day----that will not be us but perhaps Shire, Smith and Nefu or 100 other players in the space. That number was not pie in the sky---it came from clear cut marketing studies and it is irrefutable as to the potential sample size of folks in need worldwide based on real statistics.
Remember another thought----you are not buying an established business with a recurring revenue stream and hopefully when the patient is FIXED he doesnt need to come back.
FDA and the word paradigm shift go hand in hand and awareness just makes it easier at the end of the line. Extra feel good sales ---you may be correct?
if i knew all the remedies of ReCell and the players in the game i could factually give you a clear and precise answer to the possible parameters of the matrix. Unfortunately my expertise is not medical but math is math and having the comparisons makes me knowledgable and credible ----i truly do not want to ramp and if i had the data its old school to get it right.
I clearly think the patents by the way are on their own and nothing else worth more than your 300MM ST goal and i back that up with no data but simple common sense.
Other than that i agree with you ---it would be nice to sell in volumes but what's the cost to the investors to do this ramp and as you know it requires a printing press and that may not be a bad idea if you can back it up.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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1.705 | 5000 | 1 |
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