What is the right price to buy LBT, page-4

Confession time and apologies.

Have just re-run my numbers and at 100 unit run rate, the company would actually make money.

While I apologise for being unduly negative, I simply do not see the company generating annual unit sales of that magnitude in 2018FY, 2019FY or even in 2020FY - but I could be wrong.

On my numbers the company would generate pre-tax profits of about $1.7m - $2.0m (assuming they get some margin on annual software license fees).

Question: When do you imagine that the company will hit that annual unit sales run rate?

Question: Do you think that they have adequate working capital to build enough units to meet 100 unit per annum production levels given cash burn rate.

Question: Given the company has negative cashflow, at what point do you expect the next dilutionary cap raise?

I am not suggesting that the product does not work or that its not a good or even great innovation, just that I think that its marginal in economic terms because the health system worldwide is under stress due to underfunding by Governments such as our own.

High throughputs are needed to justify purchase of these units - so they will not be going into every path lab. Big labs will get bigger and small labs will wither - but that all takes time.

So I am encouraging readers to be realistic about financial returns from LBT.

I have burnt enough money backing breakthrough biotech stocks in the past and feel well qualified to give others a warning of the risks and the long timeframes in the sector.

Some companies have done very well in stock market terms, but when you look at the valuations they seem ridiculously overvalued. I can think of at least two examples. MAybe LBT will be another?

So, good luck I wish you well.