Dargie,
Who's not either nursing big losses, or at least huge erosion of paper profits?
The Thai regime is very progressive, but at the sort of production levels we are expecting from the NSE permit it is probably fair to say that the JV will be left with roughly half the NPAT/Revenue that the Tui project will.
The selling points for me are:
*Management; Ted Jacobsen in particular
*Low OPEX and negligible CAPEX
*High NPAT projected from the NSE permit(probably over many years)
*Not being very sensitive to poo, or to prdn level (once up in the 15 to 20 kbop region) due to the progressive nature of the fiscal region.
*Huge permit areas in which to explore the volcanics play, with potential to grow another one or two revenue streams (other than NSE) each starting off with 0 SRB.
I had a lot of CVN most of last year, but unloaded most at various times after the market tanked in January (just wished I'd done the same with everything else). Been adding back a few recently, but pretty modestly, as I am in an overall deleveraging mode.
Like the Tui project, imho CVN/POE have a very lucrative, low risk project, but in this case the sun is rising, not setting. With PPP (which is grossly undervalued on NPV etc) you have a very steep decline inevitable within month - not sure all the punters understand that.
EL
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