What is the true value range of oil in place when prices are escalating daily and forecasts of $200 /bbl in the not too distant future?
I have not seen much of real evidence willing buyer/willing seller value for oil in place.
Go to the BPT last two quarterly reports and you will see where Beach sold 7.8mmb of “Proved and Probable” oil reserves at a price of A$31.54/barrel in the Basker and Manta fields in the Gippsland Basin (GMB) to Itochu Corporation for a tidy sum of $246 million. This equates to about 34% of the then going rate /bbl of ~ A$93.03 in the Beach report without operating costs taken into account although infrastructure for production was in place. As it turns out Itochu are probably very happy at present with the price of crude escalating. (See an extract from their web site to see how they are thinking outside the square as a trading company and not as an oiler)
With Tapis at ~A$135 at present the current WSH 5Mbbl of oil in place is worth A$675M. Take away A$100M for the required infrastructure and the value to a buyer could be A$575M or $4.66 a TDO share (without the potential upside of Wardie)
Obviously, I am wrong in my assumptions; can someone point out my errors?
EXTRACT:
Upstream Oil & Natural Gas Project in Bass Strait
In October 2007 CIECO Exploration and Production (Australia) Pty Ltd acquired a 20% interest in the Basker Manta Gummy (BMG) Joint Venture in Bass Strait, from Anzon Australia Ltd (the operator) and Beach Petroleum Ltd, two Australian mid-cap oil and gas companies.
CIECO is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ITOCHU Minerals & Energy of Australia Pty Ltd, and outlaid a total of A$246 million for this 20% share.
Of the three Production Licences acquired (VIC/L26, 27, and 28), the Basker and Manta fields commenced production in 2006, with a production capacity of 15,000 barrels per day. The Joint Venture for the Licences is currently planning to enhance crude oil production in the near-term, and to investigate future gas development options.
ITOCHU is expecting stable earnings over 15 years through this acquisition. While crude oil from these fields is currently sold mainly to Australia, ITOCHU is considering the potential Asian market, including Japan, given the excellent quality of Basker crude, typically represented by light and low sulphur.
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Mkt cap ! $24.86M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
7.5¢ | 7.5¢ | 7.5¢ | $2.513K | 33.5K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 86102 | 7.4¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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7.5¢ | 71500 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 86102 | 0.074 |
1 | 103700 | 0.073 |
1 | 40000 | 0.072 |
1 | 42265 | 0.071 |
2 | 126428 | 0.070 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.075 | 71500 | 2 |
0.077 | 339010 | 1 |
0.080 | 13513 | 1 |
0.082 | 53934 | 1 |
0.085 | 6250 | 1 |
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