You guys know that I'm buying ahead of the June short term trigger - that's not new. What is new is that I am trying to assess upside on day of announcement and for that I went back 3 years to check on 3 specific dates that provided crazy outsize returns:
1) March/24/2020 - 231% upside from bottom to top of monthly candle, granted, there was a big impact from Covid-19 contributing to a puke into the event, but still it was an important even - what happened that triggered this upside? FAA issue paper was approved by FAA which was a critical preliminary step to get the final STC for the Intelsat gogo wifi antenna application.
2) July/30/2021 - 163% upside from bottom to top of monthly and subsequent candle given event occurred last day of July. - what happened that triggered this upside? SMN announced that nothing else was needed in order to get the final approval for the wifi antenna application. SMN also states that the APB application was moving along well.
3) March/7/2022 - 163% upside from bottom to the top of monthly candle - what happened that triggered this upside? SMN obtained the full STC approval by the FAA for the Intelsat gogo wifi antenna application.
4) March/10/2023 - upside still TBD given time until end of monthly candle - what happened that triggered this upside? SMN announced that the APB application should get final FAA approval by June this year and for the first time ever the company had revenues and received cash for the installation of CVM kits in 4 Delta planes - this shows that Delta truly believes the APB application will be approved otherwise they wouldnt have pre-paid.
Important to note a BIG diference between point 4 and the first 3 points. SMN stock price gave back all the upside because those first 3 announcements did not mean any revenues/FCF for our CVM technology. the wifi application turned out to be less relevant than expected because Delta moved on from Intelsat to Viasat, so our main partner did not need to inspect the previous system's antenna. athe APB application is completely game changer.
Based on the above I'd expect SMN to close this month above AUD 0.90/share. it might not happen because of overall market volatility or because people are jaded from past disappointments, but I do believe 2023 will be a great year for this Aussie small cap stock.
60mn market cap is a joke for a business that combineS AEM Avionics/Eagle Audio + CVM technology.
When you buy SMN at 50 cents you are getting CVM technology for free.
how much is CVM technology worth? in my opinion, somewhere between 100mn to 2bn AUD.
I like my odds.
DYODD.
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What is the upside following the APB application?
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58.5¢ |
Change
0.005(0.86%) |
Mkt cap ! $80.35M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
58.5¢ | 58.5¢ | 58.5¢ | $30 | 51 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 11133 | 56.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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58.5¢ | 6939 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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2 | 11133 | 0.560 |
2 | 2600 | 0.555 |
1 | 5000 | 0.550 |
1 | 33358 | 0.540 |
1 | 18867 | 0.535 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.585 | 1609 | 1 |
0.590 | 10330 | 2 |
0.595 | 4916 | 1 |
0.600 | 4144 | 1 |
0.610 | 11052 | 2 |
Last trade - 10.09am 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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