The value of BIT-225 has become a topic of considerable debate, particularly after the release of all three phase 2 trial results. While the initial reactions were mixed—ranging from disappointment to frustration—it's essential to take a step back and evaluate the situation objectively.The results from trials 011 and 012 can be considered failures. Trial 011 failed largely due to the lack of validated assays. In the case of trial 012, the directors' misjudgment of the situation led to a missed opportunity to conduct the trial at the optimal time. They initially believed that COVID-19 would disappear quickly, similar to SARS. Recruitting suitable participants becomes highly difficult due to the widespread availability of vaccines and antivirals. As such, it's prudent to set those aside for now. On the other hand, the outcome of trial BIT225-010 is more promising. Although it may not be a groundbreaking success, it certainly isn't a failure either. Contrary to some expectations, it didn’t achieve a "cure," but it did demonstrate a significant result: adding BIT-225 to cART leads to a more rapid reduction in plasma virus levels during the second phase of viral decay compared to cART alone. This marks the first instance where BIT-225’s direct action against HIV has been proven in human trials—something that wasn’t confirmed in trial 009 due to its design.Furthermore, the results are consistent with earlier trials, indicating that BIT-225 may have a unique immune-modifying effect when used in conjunction with cART. This potential was first noticed in trial 009 during additional tests. However, I believe the exact mechanism by which BIT-225 impacts HIV reservoirs remains unclear and warrants further investigation.While I was initially skeptical about Michael Hoy’s statement at the 2018 AGM, where he claimed we had a product, the results from trial 010 have changed my perspective. It’s now justifiable to say that we have a unique, first-in-class product that combines direct antiviral activity with immune-enhancing properties.At the very least, BIT-225 will greatly benefit HIV-1 treatment-naive patients, like those in trial 010. It will help them reduce their viral load more quickly and protect their immune system from rapid deterioration, preventing them from becoming like the patients in trial 011. This is crucial, as restoring full immune function after significant damage is challenging. BIT-225 could not only improve quality of life but potentially save more lives.Given all this, how much is BIT-225 worth? Certainly, it’s worth far more than the current market cap of $19 million (with a share price at 1.7 cents). The conservative value could very well be in the range of $100 million to $300 million.
BIT Price at posting:
1.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
