Whilst I like your approach TEP, I don't think it will be as straight forward as that.
Inevitably there is going to be a glut of wine in Australia now that will also hit Australian margins so that EBITs/NPAT Ex-Asia is going to cop it as well, plus additional marketing costs to shift product and or store product.
Back of the bar bench coaster figures probably gives a net debt / ebits of about 3-4x after a few guesstimates... I think profitability is going to be a lower for quite some time due to China, margin & additional costs, plus a potential capital raising.
I'll be looking closer over the weekend, might sell some puts to generate some income and maybe eventually buy some stock.
TWE Price at posting:
$9.23 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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