Unfortunately I have no control over the share price. At this...

Unfortunately I have no control over the share price.

At this stage, i say the return is around 50 to 1.. i.e $50 for every dollar invested/speculated. The company has been confident and wrong before, so there are some odds, unknown odds, that this recent announcement preceeds a let down, if the odds of a let down are less than 50 to 1, then mathematically buying the stock is a good bet. Let's say it's a 1 in 10 chance they finally have the goods, then I'm effectively getting good risk/reward.

The problem is this is based on numbers i made up, and the scenario won't be repeated ad infinitum