Tigerrbalm wrote an excellent post which has gained 50 likes and 21 commendations for great analysis. I forget the last time Aniesbasweden, Juanfrau, Kempeman et al achieved such recognition.
Kempeman says
“In my opinion the market does not believe that SAS will be able to achieve the pivotal milestone of deploying the commercially viable and operational Pearl constellation (or part thereof) without massive dilution”.
How can he reach any such conclusion given that typically only 5 million shares are traded each day – equal to 0.3% of the total number of shares issued and fully paid for. The fact is that there is virtually no market in the shares and the price movements are of no concern to significant shareholders.
It is a great shame that so much rubbish is posted on SAS. If the following rules were followed, it would be a much better forum. They should all be obvious to any experienced shareholder:
- 1) If you don’t have confidence in the management, don’t invest.
- 2) If you don’t have confidence in the technology, don’t invest.
- 3) If you don’t understand cash-flow, don’t invest. (the relevance of this is because none of us knows what the payments terms are with either Gomspace or Virgin).
- 4) If you don’t understand the relevance of MOUs, don’t invest.
- 5) If any of the above apply, then don’t waste your time and others’ patience by cluttering up this forum
Serious investors are not interested in the current price movements except in so far as they may offer opportunities for picking up a few hundred thousand additional shares. So far SAS have met all their promises and have removed a lot of the risk inherent in this project. However, significant risks remain. The first 20 Pearls have still to be launched and shown to perform to specification. This depends not only on SAS but also on Gomspace and Virgin. However, so far so good.
When this has been accomplished, the commercial risks of sales volume and timescale remain; which is why the MOUs are so important. Many of these are with companies that will effectively be the SAS sales force. The fact that these companies are doing much of their testing now using the Diamonds, gives hope that they will be able to hit the ground running.
In my view, it is only once the first 20 Pearls have been launched that a sustainably higher share price will be established. By then it will be too late for the doubters to jump on board at any price less 30 cents if they are lucky, and twice that if they’re not.
