current valuation 28.3cps on tui alone

from elsewhere.............

My understanding is that the Tui partners are netting US$60 cash in the hand when the Tapis price is US$70. (which we know is currently US$77-78 etc). People need to take into account that the cash needed to get the development into production has already actually been spent and current oil sales get cash in the hand with only production and transport costs deducted. NPV is almost irrelevant in this case as a large amount of the money comes to PPP in the first year. Valuation is therefore as follows:

3.2 MB x US$60 net cash per barrel = US$192M = A$230M (at 0.83 exch rate)

Royalties are 20% of NET Profit and NZ company tax is 30% - with the 20% part of this. PPP appears to have NZ tax losses of $10M and also its share of devpt costs were all up NZ$40m or so (based on NZOG 12.5% = NZ$50m).

Therefore tax to pay = A$230M - (NZ$50M tax deductions/losses) = A$190M x 30% = (A$57M) deduction.

Cash on hand was +A$30M. Project debt was US$22M plus A$10M letter of credit = (A$36M).

Therefore net cash (assuming Tapis of $70) arising from Tui = A$230-57-36+30 cash on hand = cash in bank at end of Tui of A$167M.

590M shares on issue = 28.3cps net cash that will be in the PPP bank account, net of everything. Furthermore, although some people may want to discount this cashflow a little, this is offset by the fact that a large proportion of this will be earning interest along the way and that interest will also be compounding on itself along the way as well. So I think that equation is a net/net in terms of discounting and adding on.

So from my maths PPP is worth 28.3cps from Tui alone and you can add on whatever else is necessary for Maitland and any sundry assets they may have (very little from what I can see). And again I stress this is Tapis at US$70 a barrel. Bearing in mind the production is at its peak at the beginning now and Tapis is closer to US$80, only 2-3 months at these prices and the average I took of US$70 will soon look to be too conservative.

Happy to butt heads with allcomers on this valuation. Personally once a few months of production is in the kitty, any share price below 24 cents or so should be an opportunity to buy back shares and cancel them. What is a small company like this going to do with A$167M?