HCH 2.58% 94.5¢ hot chili limited

Hello All,Yes, post 4. Stay with me.A bit of turbulence in this...

  1. 168 Posts.
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    Hello All,

    Yes, post 4. Stay with me.

    A bit of turbulence in this discussion. Best to compare companies that are in the same business.

    Beaza79 mentioned CLA. I have owned CLA since late 2017 and stayed with them, buying more through the time after they mothballed the cobalt development in Namibia. As people sold out, I bought in. They have basically transformed the company and still have Opuwo. Tomorrow may be a good day to own CLA.

    I've learned to look at the future days, not the current. So someone selling 10MM shares today did have an affect on today's price because 10MM is the average daily trading volume for the past year. This should not cause a long tern investor any heartburn. I like the opinion expressed that is gives you a buying opportunity. Always a good option to cost-average down. You have to believe in the company you have invested and look at the longer term. Like the NY stock exchange traders are doing on the day terrorists broke into the US Capital. Dow closed at a record high.

    Anyway, 10MM shares of HCH is 0.33%. There's 3.045 billion on the market. 10MM is noise, but it was enough to shake others investors out of their shares today. I bought more back on 17 Dec 2020 when HCH dropped to 0.039

    I use an investor software package called IC-Investor. Here's a plot of HCH starting Jan 2020 to today, 11 Jan 2021. Note the Fast Stochastic is starting up and the Slow almost there. The RSI took a small hit today. There was "Corporate" buying last Friday the 8 Jan, not today.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2799/2799865-d0a8059cbda5c5dd0a70971fa0704dad.jpg

    The value of a stock like HCH is really what people collectively are willing to pay.

    Someone mention DEG. I done an analysis on a few Gold stocks like my initial post on Copper. I agree the market cap divided by mineral resource value doesn't include a lot of things that make one company outperform over another. Remember I'm an engineer and we love working in Excel formulas and making plots. DEG should be at @53 cents, not 101 according to my analysis. People are putting a premium on the stock price. Excited about Gold in the Pilbara. It's the same with Lithium. Piedmont got a Tesla deal and the stock went to 45 cents. They don't have a plant yet and are not producing. Piedmont has .4million tonnes of lithium resources. Liontown is the same with 2.3 million tonnes and their stock is at 42 cents. I own AVZ which has 5.9 million tonnes and one recent contract. AVZ is at 20 cents. But I know is going to increase quickly.

    Instead of using mc/mr value, I've used Evolution as a base reference company and ratio'd the market value of each other company to EVN and then divided by the shares outstanding for that company. I own Big River Gold, BRV and was working on what its stock may be some day.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2799/2799873-19dd8bbd08d17dc226fb561ef2847d2e.jpg

    Note that EVN's Morning Star fair market value is very close to what the stock is trading. 3.89, trading at 4.72. The other companies are also close. And the mineral resource numbers for EVN, NST and NCM are huge. DEG stock price is about twice what it should be according to this evaluation, not according to what people are willing to pay.

    HCH has more gold mineral resource than DEG and trades right now at 0.042. Go figure! Plus HCH has the silver and the Copper.
    I've redone the table for HCH-Sandfire(SFR) and OZ Minerals (OZL). Puts HCH stock value at 46 cents versus 40 cents.

    I've used today's commodity prices and entered HCH actual mineral resources to compare to SFR and OZL mineral resources:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2799/2799876-515f221fe1653f7afd4b3988be943b44.jpg

    SFR stock is much higher because they only have 178 million outstanding shares. If they had 3.045 billion the share price would be 32 cents.

    Note that calculated stock price for OZL is really close to Morning Star's fair market value 15.43 vs 15.27 and OZL has a mineral value of $131 billion compared to HCH's $36.3 billion and EVN 25.2 billion.

    Stay with HCH. Buy low when you can is my opinion, not investing advice and stay with your investment through the ups and downs.
    Tom



 
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Last
94.5¢
Change
-0.025(2.58%)
Mkt cap ! $143.0M
Open High Low Value Volume
97.5¢ 97.5¢ 93.5¢ $119.9K 125.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 3042 93.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
96.0¢ 6531 2
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Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
HCH (ASX) Chart
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