EVN 1.08% $4.69 evolution mining limited

You ask: "So, where is the best position of interest rate which...

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    You ask: "So, where is the best position of interest rate which may gives benefit to POG?"

    In the current financial and economic environment that question is akin to asking how long is a piece of string. I'm not sure there is a reliable answer at the moment. I'll try to explain as simply as possible, but it is complicated. So please forgive a long winded response;

    Fundamentally the main driver for the POG at the moment is 'trust' and not 'interest rates'. Importantly, this is only my opinion so should be taken like a grain of salt. There are many other grains out there!

    Even though there are several fundamental factors proposed that move the POG, it really all hedges on the overall sentiment prevailing in various markets at any given time. Sentiment that is mainly related to the perceived financial risk.

    The whole financial system is underpinned by a very fickle emotion called trust. Unless one knows all the facts associated with a certain investment or financial instrument, then one must adopt a certain level of trust in the assumptions made to fill in the gaps of the missing facts. Hence, when levels of trust are weakened it causes a reaction of taking risk off the table. When that happens capital takes flight to what is perceived as the less risky investment. Gold in one of those. Cash is also, with the USD recently seen as the less risky in an fx perspective. The USA, and some other sovereign nations, Treasury Bonds are seen as another.

    The thing about interest rates and their influence on movements of capital can vary depending of the wider economic and financial risks prevailing at specific times. Lowering interest rates is theoretically used to foster inflation by two main aims.

    One, by lowering the cost of capital to encourage business to borrow and invest in growth. It encourages business to take on riskier projects due to the lower interest costs.

    Two, to discourage consumers from hoarding cash in banks and encourage them to spend or chase higher returns in other markets (aka chasing risk). However, when trust in the system weakens then lowering interest rates doesn't have its planned effect. That seems to have happened around the Globe in the past couple of years.

    Conversely, raising interest rates is theoretically used mainly to counter inflation, discourage risky borrowing and encourage saving. It also has other aims and separate dynamics that I won't get into now. Suffice to say that gold is seen as an inflation hedge and normally a rising interest rate environment would be adverse for the POG.

    However, the Global economy has gone a bit lopey, looney, or even crazy since the GFC panic. It seems like the economic fundamentals can't be trusted and that adversely impacts the sentiment in all sorts of markets. We see this recently when markets respond to bad news like it is good news and vice versa!

    So, the bottom line comes down to this at the moment. It is all about trust in the financial system and much less so about where the interest rate levels are at the moment. If trust fails then the POG will attract capital. When trust is lacking then the effect of increasing or decreasing interest rates does not achieve it's planned effect.

    I see a breakdown of trust in the financial system occurring and it might increase. That is why I'm concentrating on goldies. IMHO EVN is under valued and amongst some other goldies it is attracting my investing effort. I'm betting against the EVN shorters so time will tell!

    One of these days........... pow!

    Cheers
 
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