was also bang on with 3B annualised gross sales (but this is a bit lucky).
If you want to know how to predict numbers for things that are traditionally thought to be unpredictable I suggest you read a book called Superforecasters- more or less tells you how to do it and the limitations. In essence make predictions, test predictions then refine your methodology.
In this specific instance the last update was at 2.4B and reasonably easy just to carry through that growth into the next period with tweaking per guesstimates for seasonal retail variability.
Re: predicting forthcoming growth 1 year ahead with any accuracy- this is impossible. I think you can guess somewhat 3 months out but with the product expansions etc it is hard to say. Think most straightforward method is ARPU*number of users (assume ARPU rises by another $200 next year and number of users rises by 4000/day - but will decay at some stage) for AU. I have no idea re:US
APT Price at posting:
$13.39 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
