This kind of situation is precisely what makes the share market...

This kind of situation is precisely what makes the share market so interesting and potentially lucrative.

Right now, everything hinges on ACV1. Forget diabetes, osteoporosis, nerve regereration, oral peptides and all the rest. None of it is going anywhere at all unless the company can generate cash flow off ACV1.

Risk averse money managers will avoid this kind of situation like leprosy. They will not be impressed in the slightest by all the pre-clinical and clinical data under pinning the expectations of both safety and efficacy.

This is still not a sure thing. It is a risky thing, but a risky thing that offers the investor a chance to look at a plethora in information in the public sector and draw concusions about the actual risk that ACV1 might fail in the clinic.

For me, that analyisis is complete, and my conclusion is that ACV1 will prove to have been such a clear success in the single Phase II trial so far completed, that a partnering deal with big pharma will be concluded in the near term, on possibly record setting terms.

This will ensure a cash flow to Metabolic that ought to provide income of 10 cents to 20 cents a share over the next three to four years of trials, and likely 50 cents a share in the longer term based on a sustained royalty flow. these earnings translate into a share price of $2.00 to maybe $5.00 a share in the near term and $15 a share or more longer term, on the strength of ACV1 alone.

Longer term, I expect that additional earnings will materialise on other elements of the pipeline, or on the basis of eventual approval of additional indications for oral ACV1, making the actual share price say 6 years out likely to be a multiple of my estimate of $15 a share.

Bottom line, I'm adding to my holding of MBP.