In the event OCJ do not accept the offer - (they haven't as yet,...

In the event OCJ do not accept the offer - (they haven't as yet, judging by RHK announcement this morning, only Todd has)

A new RHK would have basically substituted Todd on the share register for FMG. What does this represent potentially?

FMG:
Deep pockets with $3.5B in bank and established connections to financiers
3rd largest IO producer in Australia
Proven experience developing IO mines
Transport infrastructure on the door step of Blacksmith
Healthy Chinese off take relationships in place
Currently poor grade (~54%) ore being produced that they need RHK ore to improve

Todd:
No Cash
No experience
RHK board representation that hasn't achieved anything and let this FMS/RHK rot for 10 years
An FMS/RHK/BBIG disaster that cost them ~$350M plus

Thankfully we are now free of Todd completely. They are dirty history on this Company.

A new RHK:
Refreshed Share register
Revised BoD with FMG representation
A new strategy with legitimate focus on production
Expertise in development
Potential Transport Infrastructure via FMG
Potential Off take agreements or relationships via FMG
Potential Labour workforce via FMG
Potential Plant & Logistics Hub nearby
Potential Established supply contracts and relationships via FMG
The list goes on......

On the basis that OCJ do not accept, I find it illogical to believe a new price floor has not been established at a minimum 1.05 and considering the above, FMG bring enormous value into the picture.

Recent purchasers (last 6 days) at 1.19 would be unlikely to sell at a loss
Most minority holders appear to be rusted on for production opportunity and unlikely to sell at or below $1.05 or even $1.20.

If FMG believe that RHK are worth $1.20, why should any SH be prepared to sell below this price?

I don't feel that there will be a rush to the exits, nor that there would be reason to see a sub $1.05 price, even $1.20 after today whatever happens.
I feel the RHK SP should establish a new floor at around this price level.

For the reasons listed above, I believe that the value attributed to RHK shares in substituting Todd for FMG is worth well in excess of 25% of RHK MC.

Yes there are risks, Delisting for example - however it would need to be a lot stronger case provided than the flimsy reasoning provided by RHK previously (driven by Todd) and that was defeated. i.e. would be hard to argue no access to finance or funding for example... or no liquidity, given recent trading volumes.

Before accepting the offer on the table, SH need to consider in light of all the above, are their holdings NOW worth significantly more than the 85c they were pre offer.

I know how I feel about it!

Always DYOR