URANIUM (NYMEX) * What more could be said ...

Originally posted by ray_dalio_fan ↑

Originally posted by AverageJoe
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Bottom wedge pattern broke that support. This is heading lower from here and given the bearish sell off in the major markets globally, I am not really surprised.

DYL the most promising of the dreadfuls is also hitting the double top and sliding. BMN faring even worse. PDN is just flapping around and VMY has been falling since that 10C bottom gave way.

Crude price recovery wasn't the excuse to bet on this sector and the big oil sell off has even less reason!

Picking bottom has been a very expensive lesson in this sector and holding for the LT has even fared worse!
I have no idea AverageJoe what i am supposed to do with this chart?

Suggest reading Camecos latest Analyst Earnings call, it will explain very clearly the supply (shortage) and demand. Uranium Joe in 2018 was the best performing Commodity +45% and is still 85% from its high ... and today there is a 45% net supply deficit in Urnaium, which in 2018 was only 15%? The price needs to move to $55 before any supply from producers comes online. Producers dictate the market.

Suggest read Book Capital Returns by Marathon Asset Management, whom for 40 yrs have been the best Commodity Trading house Globally. They are investing in Uranium.

The world needs 200m lbs uranium a year and China is building 400 Reactors, so alone will be 220m lbs, so world production moves to 440m lbs, when no-one is producing .... hmmm ... with a current net deficit and demand growing .... how does that get factored into the chart?

Also all the junior producers need Uranium price at $70 before coming online.

Today compared to 2011 when spot was $110, there are more reactors and no supply .... hmmm

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Cameco and the Kazakhs were the ones artificially cutting the supply. Uranium might be the best performing in % but it came off a low base, uneconomical to ALL Oz producers and still in the same condition even with a 45% increase in the spot prices!

I don’t trust looking at spot chart, no liquidity and contract pricing is jealously guarded. That etf is probably the best gauge of an opaque commodity in the same way as Lit etf.

I was reading about all the new reactors being built or commissioned back in 2015 as the spot went apesheet. The same articles are probably being regurgitated as the early birds punted from 2015. These punters probably never experienced the expo rally in the same manner millinials were led to the crypto slaughter house just like their earlier cousins were sucked out into the dot com era.

This is where I don’t see the proverbial duck quacking. Crashing crude oil is a good indicators that those very high capex plants will get a second contemplations. The are higher priorities and very persuasive competing energy sources that can be rolled out with FAR less risk of meltdowns!

Every year when you have read flashing news on Japanese earthquake, what is your first instinct? Does Fukushima scenario comes flooding back? This crisis was brought about by Jap idiocy and they are paying for it. Let them all glow in the duck. It’s like a Jap walking down the freeway blind folded and believing ALL cars will swerve because he believes in God. Amen.