URANIUM (NYMEX) * What more could be said ...

Originally posted by ray_dalio_fan ↑

Originally posted by AverageJoe
Cameco and the Kazakhs were the ones artificially cutting the supply. Uranium might be the best performing in % but it came off a low base, uneconomical to ALL Oz producers and still in the same condition even with a 45% increase in the spot prices!

I don’t trust looking at spot chart, no liquidity and contract pricing is jealously guarded. That etf is probably the best gauge of an opaque commodity in the same way as Lit etf.

I was reading about all the new reactors being built or commissioned back in 2015 as the spot went apesheet. The same articles are probably being regurgitated as the early birds punted from 2015. These punters probably never experienced the expo rally in the same manner millinials were led to the crypto slaughter house just like their earlier cousins were sucked out into the dot com era.

This is where I don’t see the proverbial duck quacking. Crashing crude oil is a good indicators that those very high capex plants will get a second contemplations. The are higher priorities and very persuasive competing energy sources that can be rolled out with FAR less risk of meltdowns!

Every year when you have read flashing news on Japanese earthquake, what is your first instinct? Does Fukushima scenario comes flooding back? This crisis was brought about by Jap idiocy and they are paying for it. Let them all glow in the duck. It’s like a Jap walking down the freeway blind folded and believing ALL cars will swerve because he believes in God. Amen.
ETF is US based on producers and very small with only bi-annual re-balance, so very little movement. I get your point thou now, can be handy.

Uranium has pretty much ZERO interest. No where near the hype of Crypto or should we say no where near the hype of Lithium or Cobalt, two commodities in over-supply, and have totally collapsed.

Check out Paradice, some super smart Alpha FM's whom are big in Uranium and have been topping up.

Good contributions, thou thanks.

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I was one of the U bull back from 2005, heavily invested in the Oz sector and rode it right through 2008 and recovery pre-Fukushima. Such a Black Swan has taught me important lesson never to be too cocky in my conviction! Overall I did pretty well in this sector but it was more luck than objective analysis that got me out.

Fundamentally I "see" EV/Li battery as the forefront of the renewable revolution with very little impact on the environment unlike a Fukushima meltdown. I am not saying it can repeat but given Japanese cover up, before, during and after the event and the ongoing denial of spillage into the surrounding sea, I prefer to sleep well at night.

Cobalt I always suspected was not sustainable as a pure play commodity but LiNi is where the future lies. Again like any expo rally, this is the result of the exuberance and like U or Gold, it will probably get a second rally. However Q1 2019 is where there are a lot of global macro headwinds and I am not prepared to get besides minimum exposure in anything and even less indulgence in prediction.

Good luck to your exposure but this is where we differ respectfully.

P/s I know a few specialist funds are bullish in U for a few years and a great gamble at rock bottom valuation, very much a coin flip wealth creation/destruction I am not prepared to take.