Got to agree there AverageJoe, never be cocky. Agree 100%. As...

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ray_dalio_fan

566 Posts.

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30/12/18

16:11

Post #: 36984825
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Originally posted by AverageJoe: ↑

I was one of the U bull back from 2005, heavily invested in the Oz sector and rode it right through 2008 and recovery pre-Fukushima. Such a Black Swan has taught me important lesson never to be too cocky in my conviction! Overall I did pretty well in this sector but it was more luck than objective analysis that got me out.

Fundamentally I "see" EV/Li battery as the forefront of the renewable revolution with very little impact on the environment unlike a Fukushima meltdown. I am not saying it can repeat but given Japanese cover up, before, during and after the event and the ongoing denial of spillage into the surrounding sea, I prefer to sleep well at night.

Cobalt I always suspected was not sustainable as a pure play commodity but LiNi is where the future lies. Again like any expo rally, this is the result of the exuberance and like U or Gold, it will probably get a second rally. However Q1 2019 is where there are a lot of global macro headwinds and I am not prepared to get besides minimum exposure in anything and even less indulgence in prediction.

Good luck to your exposure but this is where we differ respectfully.

P/s I know a few specialist funds are bullish in U for a few years and a great gamble at rock bottom valuation, very much a coin flip wealth creation/destruction I am not prepared to take.

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Got to agree there AverageJoe, never be cocky. Agree 100%. As Ray Dalio says in his book Principles always understand the opposing view and find intellectually smart people who may disagree with your view, so in saying that i welcome your challenge.

I get your point on EV/Li and it does have demand side growth, but i would caution you to look at the supply side. There is allot supply coming online, so if its an area of interest i would recommend going with those already producing, and not those with any financing risk as they always tend to blow out.

Global macro headwinds, i would just say you could be right, but the Fwd P/E now across all USA sectors is lowest in over 20 years. Also Trump in early Jan will seek a Trade War settlement in my view and the Fed now is not raising rates, the 10 Yr Bond is telling us that now. IT has fallen like 30bp!

Wish you well.
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