What moves AJQ SP?

The blue circled numbers on the plot below refer to the following:

1 Sept 2013 Ambrian Report
2 Sept 2013 Annual Report
3 Nov 4, 2013 first continuous post stimulation gas flows
4 Nov 28, 2013 NT Conventional gas Res increased ten-fold
5 Dec 2013 revised mean Prospective Resources NT wells
6 Mar 4, 2014 Bell Potter Report
7 Mar 3 2014 Morgans Report
8 April 2014 high Total Organic Content Egilabria 4
9 Apr 2014 Farm out Qld- significant interest reported
+ April Q1 2014 report
It looks like the broker/analyst  reports 1,7,8 cause temporary SP increases, but AJQ company reports do not change the SP much . Recent volatility , May June 2014 may have been due to the de-risking note, CEO visit to Japan as NT rep,  etc but the drop in the 200 day moving average (blue line ) continues unabated.
I feel that the coming QR, end July, will not change the trend.
The polarisation between die-hards and disenchanted shareholders will probably increase. The SP will wander lower giving die-hards the chance to top up at lower prices while the disenchanted sell out.
The catalyst I am waiting for is an announcement that a farm-out agreement has been signed. This will come but when?  Maybe the QR will give us a clue about how near a farm-out is.
I don't understand why some Riversleigh shale resource estimates have not yet been released. In coming QR?