what moves the sp?

We all want to know/estimate/guess at where/when the SP will top/bottom etc. It's part of investing or trading, whether you are long term or day trading. It's no good holding FML forever if you die with ten million shares that have never paid a divvy...

About six months ago I posted this chart, comparing the last sustained run and the collapse back down to 3.5c. I was looking for drivers of the SP after the horrible 2 Qs in the middle of 2010.







I didn't get the timing or the "events" right but, with the benfit of hindsight, can now plot them on a daily candlestick chart. The events are, in effect, this year's announcements:





I think it's simplistic to isolate one ann and compared it to that day's candle as a guide to market sentiment but... only a fool would disregard the data. I've believed for some time that the market remains unconvinced that FML can be profitable in the long term. I think any data that suggest otherwise are now the catalyst for re-rating.

PS: With the recent volume I wouldn't be surprised to see a notice out in the next few days....


Cheers,

C12