Ok @Dickkyboy I'll play along but I hope you also show your hand and tell us what your forecast is and why, I asked once before but no show. The issue that I have with some posters is not that they differ with my views but that they're unable to show how they came about such a view.
Anyway here's what you've asked for and my reasoning:
Profit: Believe it or not I'm sticking with my previous A$50M to A$100M forecast , the vast majority of this is revaluation of the dermatology assets which currently have a carrying value of A$45M on our books but a recoverable value of A$162.5M. I am not an accountant but I believe that these two values should be about the same. In 2023 FY we impaired those values to bring them into line by A$59.9M because dermatology wasn't making any money. Now the tables have turned and I believe the carrying value will revalued to what it was before or even higher. See the table below:
Dermatology A$M 2024 FY Fcast 2024 1HF 2023 FY 2022FY Revenue $175.00 $80.90 $57.00 $92.20 Contribution $40.00 $18.80 -$21.00 $20.20 Recoverable Value Higher than >> $162.50 $189.00 $248.00 Carrying value $44.70 $173.00 $173.00 Impairment -$59.90 Poss Revaluation $140 ??
And to answer your other question about Nextstellis cycles my previous reasoning for achieving about 68K by June was based on the growth month on month for the previous year was about 9%. So yes the last 6 months or so the growth has been between 4 and 6% depending on your starting point so in view of that I have corrected my forecast to look like this
Nextstellis Forecast NSP $106.00 Actual(up to Jan) Revenue 31 Jul 23 33,000 $3.63 31 Aug 23 38,000 $4.18 30 Sep 23 35,000 $3.85 31 Oct 23 40,000 $4.40 30 Nov 23 38,000 $4.18 31 Dec 23 40,000 $4.40 31 Jan 24 44,453 $4.71 29 Feb 24 44,830 $4.75 31 Mar 24 46,308 $4.91 30 Apr 24 50,250 $5.33 31 May 24 53,226 $5.64 30 Jun 24 56,379 $5.98 FY 24 519,447 $55.96
I admit that it is optimistic in the sense that I am assuming similar growth for the last two months as for April growth and this is A$10M higher in revenue than Wilsons which they say is conservative. This may appear to be a fantasy to you but I have not imagined this and I've given you my reasons why. So over to you and your figures.
PS The figures that you see for Feb to June are extrapolated figures to correct the IQVIA figures for non-reporting pharmacies not being included.
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