G'day Dickkyboy,
Just to be clear my projections back in late 2023 were based on the evident growth trend in 2022 and 2023 which was 9%MoM, hence my projection for rapid growth in Nextstellis sales in FY 2024. My new projection is based on the new reported figures 10.4%QoQ or 3.4%MoM for 4QFY24 and was lower than that in 3QFY24, so the basis for my projections has not changed i.e. the latest reported trend, should the figures reported next week show a marked change from 3.4%MoM that will be my new projections for sales.
You're quite right, I do undertake a lot of due diligence on this stock and I'm not blinded by spin (eg the AFR article) but I do think the market is underestimating the valuation of this stock, even if 3.0%MoM growth is maintained for FY25 on the entire portfolio i.e. All WH and Dermatology, revenue for FY 25 will be north of $550M.
How did I arrive at this figure?
- Imvexxy MoM growth rate 2.7%
- Bijuva MoM growth rate 2.2% (There were supply issues in Feb/March2024)
- Annovera MoM growth rate 2.5% (15% TXr growth last 6 months)
- Nextstellis MoM growth rate 3.4%
- Dermatology sales MoM growth 3.0% (last 6 months)
- Dermatology contribution MoM growth rate 6% (last 6 months)
All of these figures can be calculated from the latest FY2024 report and if these growth rates were maintained for FY25, then $10/share will look very cheap. The cautionary statement is of course that there's no guarantee that these rates will be maintained but it's all we have for now until next week.
Cheers
(20min delay)