@lakota6, You're right, a lot has already been revealed and the share price improvement is disappointing and you're right to ask what could possibly be reported on the 26/2 to improve the share price further.
I've come to the conclusion that the market wants to see significant EPS improvement, not just underlying EBITDA but actual EBITDA. Whilst underlying EBITDA improvement tells us that operationally we are improving, ie better revenue, cost-effectiveness and underlying cash flow are all tracking in the right direction we need to put an end to the one-offs (cash or non-cash) that keep cropping up. Last year it was earn-out reassessments $88M (non-cash), $33M class action (not paid last FY but recorded in the P&L for FY24), $68M amortisation of intangibles, $$discontinued operations which contributed most of the -$2.0 EPS outcome.
So getting back to the issue, what could actually be reported on the 26/2 is
a clean result with few adjustments to the underlying EBITDA that we already know will be $30-$32M. If we report somewhere around -$0.2 EPS, we will be in good territory to possibly achieve close to break even EPS at year end. This will be significantly aided if management were to give underlying EBITDA guidance of $70-$100M for the full year, but this guidance is not going to be given, even though I believe we will get there this FY.
Other commentary may also help eg Nextstellis cycles growing 15% QoQ, TXMD portfolio also growing and surpassing previous $ under previous owner and dermatology and disintermediation also going well.
I've posted something like this chart before to show that the relationship between EPS and SP is compelling and by calendar year end, I believe we will not only be EPS positive but also significantly cashflow positive.
