My previous post was partially incorrect. I didn't read the fine...

My previous post was partially incorrect. I didn't read the fine print.

What NBN Co is saying with the new WBA3 announced on 17 November is that for ISPs who have the ability to up-sell and increase their CVC average, they will win in the marketplace.

The reason is: a) imagine an ISP that solely conquered the market with 12/25 plans i.e. the low end. Their CVC average won't be high and so their CVC cost will be high.

Versus b) an ISP that only had customers on 100Mbps plans. Their CVC average will be high and closer to 3Mbps. They will be able to purchase 1Mbps of CVC for $8. They now have a big advantage across all price points.

The key is to get your CVC average up but have customers pay for it...i.e. up-sell with high end plans not 25Mbps plans. So the winners will be the ISPs with the highest concentration in 100Mbps and 12Mbps.

The NBN Co also achieves their desired objective of higher ARPU this way.

All eyes will now be on the ACCC website now for who has the most 100Mbps customers and 12Mbps customers.

Vocus is on top by % split. TPG has the most 12Mbps customers and the 2nd most 100Mbps customers. And Optus is looking good too. Telstra less so.

The sell-side analysts will have to lift their earnings estimates for TPM and VOC.