TPG + iiNet had 561,000 NBN customers at the end of FY17. They...

TPG + iiNet had 561,000 NBN customers at the end of FY17.

They estimate that 400k-500k will migrate over to NBN this financial year. So the year end figure will be 1 million NBN customers or 50% of total broadband customers.

The CVC charge per Mbps was previously $15.25. I estimated that we were buying on average 1.5Mbps of CVC across TPG and iiNet. (We have quite a lot of 100Mbps customers)

If the new CVC charge is $12 per Mbps under the discount, EBITDA will increase by $3.25 per Mbps x 1.5Mbps usage x 12 months x 561000 customers = $32.8 million dollars from existing customers.

If our effective NBN customer base over the year is 750,000 say, that's $43.875 million ABOVE Stephen Banfield's EBITDA guidance of $800-815mil.

If we are conservative and say the average CVC usage is 1.2Mbps which will cost $13.50 per Mbps. The EBITDA uplift will be:

$1.75 per Mbps x 1.2Mbps of usage x 12 months x 750000 = $18.9mil above guidance.

Happy days for shareholders!!!!!