what odds iron valley to go ahead?, page-24

Commodore thumbs up mate I always enjoy reading your posts.

Regarding the potential for a Stokes buyout, firstly I only think it's possible if FMG go ahead at Iron Valley as this would put IOH in a nice cash flow position going fwd providing iron prices are OK.

Secondly, I do think $2 is a possibility because to chalk up 90%+ of the stock Stokes would need pretty much all the top 20 + most of the minnows and I would suggest that a board recommendation to accept the offer would be essential for all that to happen.

With Vorster + Randall holding a massive stack of options, how is he going to get a board recommendation to accept the offer if at least some of their options are in the money? Without checking any documents - from memory the options start at $1.60 (I think Vorester has one million at $1.60) and then there are millions more at $1.90 so this is why I think a Stokes bid would need to be around $2 to get up.

Anyway... It's all crazy talk right now as the SP is firmly in the toilet & iron ore needs to bounce back for us all to dare to dream that IOH can do anything other than tread water.