What price to offer for successful takeover of HDR, page-14

piyush,

I think your estimated value of Ching reserves of $A2.50 is on the low side. All the analsysts reports use $US2-3. The most recent estimate is from the file called fusion_wif_houston_0502.pdf, which can be downloaded from Fusions web site.

Fusion commissioned an independent consulant to review Chinguetti. "Scott Pickford est. NPV 10
per barrel US $2.45."

You gave 4 reasons explaining HDRs modest gains today. Any of these explanations might be true, but I'll put my money on King Louies stale bull theory. A lot of people bought into HDR pre Courbine last year and have been sitting on losses all year cursing themselves for not taking profits. Finally, today, they are in profit and they rush for the exits. This is supported by the fact that HDR was listed in Comsecs top 10 on the sell side. I think a lot of these people might put their toe in the water again in the lead up for Banda. I also think that when the production tests come in and show Ching to be commercially viable, HDR will no longer be a pure speccy and the fund managers can start moving in.

It is a shame that so many retail investors, having born the risks of Mauritania, sell out on the cheap to the fundies and let them enjoy the profitable and lower risk end game.