What price to offer for successful takeover of HDR, page-15

Chinguetti,

Thanks for your reply.

A NPV of US$2-3 does change the scene a fair bit.

I have held HDR from 18c onwards, last purchase was after the first success in Mauritania at 84c. In fact, when WPL bought into HDR at $1.10, I thought it was a steal - mainly because WPL had access to info which none of us had.

I was tempted to buy at ~40C levels. My view at the time was overreaction ie., HDR has been way oversold. Since, AS A RULE, I do not allocate more than a certain portion of the portfolio on any one script, the only way out for me was to increase overall share market exposure which was not possible at the time.

The market reacts sharply, in today's times, on either side, with good or bad news. That is why I am concerned at the market reaction to recent announcement. Volumes generally come before any major announcements and none of this has taken place.

Regarding the view that shareholders are selling to book profit, I feel shareholders who buy into spec. oil shares are well aware of the risks (& rewards) and doubt they will sell only to cover earlier losses/book some profit at a time when the overall picture is looking better - unless we have a whole bunch of newbies who are overcommitted to one share. Those who got in early ~ 10c-30c will be so far ahead that even if the next few wells are "dusters" they will still be truly in profit PLUS have enough time to pull out if the going gets rough.

So I am looking for answers !

From my perspective, as I am not a day trader, a look at the chart tells the story. HDR, if it continues as it has so far, may go a long way - however, I do not hold any great hopes of $2-3 in the short term !

Lastly, I have enjoyed reading some of your well researched posts.

Regards,