TX5
The only people who can answer your questions sit on the WCU management team and they aren't saying anything.
I expect cost of mining to be high if the time to reach depth of the declines is any indication. Hard ground equals higher cost to extract ore and lower production rates.
The next issue which cannot be quantified is the toll rate Denison will want for treating the ore to yellow cake. I believe WCU are going to pay a premium or have to build their own mill. Now that would defe the project for a while.
Then the contract price for sale of product. I have heard that contract prices could be negotiated at around US$70 pound. How much of that money will make its way back to Aus. given the project is in the US it is likely that they will retain the funds in the US for project payments. This would produce little to no exchange rate advantage to the project or company.
The U price took a hit when Obama announced a proposal for greater reduction in nuclear warheads than previously planned. This means more weapons nuclear feed to power plants than previously planned and for longer.
I do not believe the greens water debate is a factor at all in the current share price. I believe key market players (insiders) know the issues being faced by the company - starting from mining to sales and further to the TSX listing. I think the last point - TSX listing - is the key to the share price currently.
As mentioned before I strongly believe the TSX listing will come with a placement to key US players and that will be around 20 cents per share plus a free option. The company can place up to 15% of its approved shares without seeking shareholder approval and I recon they will. I expect the US players to be wanting the stock cheaper hence the declining share price that has been set in a tight band for several months since TSX listing was announced.
Another key issue is the options are 1 - 2 cents from being "in the money" so most of the options will be exercised. Another month (with negative news in between) will see a flood of options trading (being dumped) at around 1 cent and they will be swallowed up for the 25 cent exercise price by the smarties wanting to secure share volume without chasing the SP price up.
The above is only my opinion but without any guide from the company who knows.
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