What Price?

When determining a trade / investment in MBN, I used a combination of FA and TA to determine fair value and likely price targets. As Tomboy has pointed out 98% of the registry is owned by US noteholders who swapped US$295m of debt (A$507m) for 98.4% of the shares in the company. When converted to A$ this is approx 55c per share..
The 444GA court ruling where the enterprise value was judged to be far less than the outstanding debt was based on an independent experts (KordaMentha) report, that was in turn based on NP forecasts from no less than 19 nickel analysts.
KM found that the enterprise value ranged between US$207m to $279m (A$267 to $360m).
This equates to 28 to 38c per share...
So what this tells me is that fundamentally the company is worth at least 28c and (hopefully) the quarterly report should confirm this. What wasn't factored into the NP forecasts and value calculations was the significant depreciation in the BRL, which would add significant value to the model, potentially pushing it up towards the 38c per share..
When you add all this up and compare it with the charts (TA) it strongly suggests that somewhere between 28c to 55c is a likely target if the quarterly stacks up. As Tomboy has stated 44c being the last spike high is the obvious technical spike target and I agree. Where it settles after that is anyone's guess but I think we may see a base formed around 25-30c as we move towards mid year, and if the NP recovers then MBN has the potential to be 50c+ come July..
These are my musings only and the reason that I have taken a large stake (for me) in MBN
I intend to hold through the mid term in the belief that Nickel will face supply deficits in the next 12 - 18 months which will add further upward momentum to the SP...although I may trade the swings ; )
GLTAH
(If I have got any of the above wrong, please correct me.. happy to know facts)