CJcrisco & maffs, Your maths looks good, if the CEO was correct...

CJcrisco & maffs,

Your maths looks good, if the CEO was correct then thats an annualised profit of US$60M or $15M pqtr, then you have to minus royalties add Q4 crossover sales already produced in Q4 ~$12M = $27M, hence my figure of $23M-$33M positive cashflow Q1. If the BRL drop of 25% 2nd half of Q1 to 3.30 is taken into account COP may well drop to your range of $3.95-$3.10 USlb , my estimate was around $3.75-$4.25 as thats around 20% lower than the announced range of 4.50-5.00 based on a BRL rate of 2.60 not 3.15 now 3.00.

The COP for that 3000T produced but not sold in Q4 to Norilsk/offtakers was incurred in Q4, remember only 200T sales in Q4 from the normal 3150T production pqtr, but income pushed into Q1 creating a cashflow windfall in Q1, right on cue for the additional positive cashflow from increased production and sales in Q1.

So i stick with 23M-33M COP may well be lower but 6 weeks COP would have been at 4.50 and the other 6 weeks at 3.15 BRL so balances out to around 3.75-4.25 COP. Very profitable.

As for Q2, we will judge this based on Q1, if BRL stays above 2.60 and NP rebounds as predicted by Stevenson on the N3 Eclipse event starting in June, then also profit estimated roughly $12M - $20M. They would have to issue dividends and buybacks with strong cashflow projected for the whole of 2015.

Market valaution of $1.5M profit pqtr for the next 21 months is a joke. SP will rerate as its tightly held, a 100M day may be coming soon. Tuesday 28th or mayday show. Prespike patterns already happening the last few weeks.

A COP below $4.50( my est of 4.15), sales of 4000T (est 6000-7000T), production increase of 5% (est 25%) and $5M profit (my est of 23M-33M) would stun the doubting market that undervalues and underrates MBN.

A green gravestone doji right now on TA. excellent.

Stevenson holds up MBN as an example to all other NI stocks from its N2 eclipse run of 3100%, MBN will be the example once more and for the N3 Eclipse event starting June as he says, its the canary in the Ni mine no more, its a howling massive dragon in that Ni mine not a canary.