What price MHM.1 First a gripe. Why don’t people start a new...

What price MHM.
1 First a gripe. Why don’t people start a new thread when changing a topic, ie “Board Changes” Rod63 excepted keep those photos coming and thank you. I have numbered this post so you can be specific in your comment or criticism.
2 We hear a lot of discussion about what Price MHM will return to. I tend to think the >50cents is a bit of dreaming but I also think the current price is a bit underdone.
3 This is a stock with very few shares <140m, any one in the top 40 selling out (maybe to realise a tax loss) will have a dramatic effect on the market although I note opportunistic support around 5.5c Albeit a small dollar value. Likewise investing a modest 10k would take the price to around 10c. Also worth considering there are only 189 of a possible 2600 shareholders with a share value of more than $6,000.
4 So what’s it worth. It’s been said before this stock is “a quarter away from telling us anything” I think after the Jan quarterly this statement will still be true.
5 The only positive from Mgt is the forecast 2014 EBITDA $1.5m with a $½ m loss for the year. This is a great result compared to the 2013 figs of $3.8m EBITDA and $7m loss. (figs “address to shareholders” 22/11/2013) Also given the negative cash flow of the 1st qtr, and similar projection for the Dec qtr (Sept asx update) would indicate some confidence in the second half.
6 If these figs eventuate (IMO we have an under promise over deliver board) that would give us a balance sheet of net tangible assets around $140m or a tad over 10 cents a share.
7. If these figs eventuate that is a fairly good turnaround predicted for the second half. Has anyone a thought on a figure that could translate to earnings per share. Eg A $1.3m profit would be needed translate to 1c a share. If you think the price earnings ratio for this company should be 10 (this fig would not take into account a possible USA plant) the share price would again be around 10c
8 If it is cash positive and Mgt can say “Kentucky we are good to go” that PE should be much much higher than 10.
9 This stock remains a speculative investment with possible good gains on the present price. Without the USA its just another small company that may be of interest as a takeover target, (private equity or metal processing) but given the tight shareholding what would be the chances of it succeeding and at What price.
10 As for Port Henry IMO its gone (who ever heard of a company saying we don’t want any govt money??) I have also been told that Port Henry is not important to the viability of MHM. I don’t know the truth of this, maybe a good subject for another Thread. Also I think management need to address this in the next Qtrly I would like to hear from someone about Aust Aluminum industry and a future rationalisation.