croupier - Yes they are all possibilities - nay...

croupier - Yes they are all possibilities - nay probabilities.

And I take your point of the present circumstance are in some ways a product of our own devices.

However, not one of the scenarios listed is far from reality NOW!!!

Remove the impact - deterrent if you like - of the US presence and its a done deal.

As for using as you say isolation/coercion etc....thats what preempted Japan's desire to join the Axis in WW2.