MAE marion energy limited

With all the negativity being posted I think its time to look at...

  1. 4,547 Posts.
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    With all the negativity being posted I think its time to look at the positives. Don't get me wrong - I'm not one to stick my head in the sand and just hope my investment will do ok, but this is a spec stock & the returns can be big.

    Firstly, management are clearly more optimistic than the reality of progress made. In my opinion optimism is a good thing, ask any coach. Management's goal is to build the asset up so they can get the best possible sale price & hence personal return from their options. I think shareholders are just an inconvenience to them and they know that in the end all will be well rewarded. We may not like that, but I would prefer they get on with the job. Sure more information would be great, but maybe they have to be careful what they release to the majority of uneducated (oil & gas wise) investors & possible predators.

    My expectations for this stock are that the CC reserves will be increased, hopefully to 500bcf+ and that they will get at least US$2 for 2P reserves. I don't think these expectations are beyond what mae is capable of, but I haven't seen anything yet to lower my expectations. I hope this will occur this year.

    Why am I reasonably confident?

    Historical production from this very field using old technology

    Last years reserve report - conducted by a well respected independent company.

    Reported initial flows - the gas is not going to just go away, we'll just have to wait for the dewatering process to be completed.

    Current gas prices & prices received for recent asset sales.

    The current price retrace is on small volume, mae has had its fair share of HC posts & would have attracted day traders who move out of stocks at the first sign of weakness. The last time mae was sub 70c was when pcaruso was selling his million odd shares & it recovered quickly. With 300m shares on issue there are the vast majority holding onto their investment. I must admit I sold about 200k after the last quarterly due to another short term opportunity, but have now bought back in, topping up at 67 & 66c yesterday. Must admit I felt uncomfortable when my holdings were reduced. People buy & sell for all sorts of reasons and on a thinly traded stock like mae, this will have a big affect on the sp.

    I'm happy to hold & wait, just based on the present reserves mae is cheap.
    The Ok sale must be close to being announced, this might get things moving.
 
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