what the analysts are saying after the result

ABN Amro 19/11/2008 1 Buy $45.00 68.5%
The broker sees the 1H09 result as a strong one given the circumstances and the $1.45 interim dividend sent a clear, positive signal to the market. But it's just going to keep getting harder and maintaining this level of performance will be difficult. Write downs were lighter than expected, but going forward the broker expects that they could be slightly higher and revenue slightly weaker than management’s forecasts given the deteriorating environment.
The broker's profit forecasts are cut by 19% in FY09, 22% in FY10 and 16% in FY11. Otherwise, the company seems to be coping and the longer term prospects are good, says the broker. Buy maintained given the stock looks cheap to the broker and a recovery is bound to happen sometime.


Citi 19/11/2008 1 Upgrade to Buy, High Risk, from Hold $35.57 33.2%
Citi has upgraded Macquarie Group to Buy from Hold (High Risk) to reflect a strong first-half result and prudent balance sheet management and funding position.
It cut earnings forecasts 12% to 15% and eased the target price to $35.57 from $36.26.

It says Macquarie's operating income dived 37% to $3 billion, after writedowns of $1.1 billion across its managed funds, co-investments, Italian mortgages, and other loan & trading activities.

Citi says excluding write-downs, operating income fell 13% to $4.1 billion and net profit after tax fell 6% to $999 million. It expects more writedowns.


Merrill Lynch 19/11/2008 1 Buy, Medium Risk $38.50 44.2%
The 1H09 profit of $604m was down 43% on last year and 16% below the broker, who notes the $1.45 dividend was surprisingly strong. Revenues were ahead of the broker's expectations despite the writedowns and all in all, the "result was ok".
FY09-10 EPS forecasts are cut by 16% and 17%, mainly due to the prospect of more writedowns. Overall, the broker thinks the result should instil confidence, as it demonstrates that Macquarie's model isn't too broken to be fixed. Buy retained. Target falls to $38.50 (from $40.40).


JP Morgan 19/11/2008 1 Overweight $40.00 49.8%
Profit met consensus estimates and in the broker's view the result highlighted the strength of the group's funding profile.
The broker suggests the current discount to NTA is excessive as it implies questions over the group's business model and the result shows these are not justified.

This means no change to the broker's Overeweight rating post the result.


UBS 19/11/2008 3 Neutral $27.80 4.1%
In the broker's view the profit result of $604m for the first half was a decent result given the tough environment and post the result it makes only modest changes to its forecasts.
While guidance for 2H09 appears a challenge the broker sees this as being offset by solid capital and liquidity positions and so it retains its Neutral rating.


Credit Suisse 19/11/2008 1 Outperform $50.00 87.3%
The broker notes the 1H results demonstrates good liquidity and reasonable balance sheet gearing, while the maintenance of the dividend was also a plus. But the earnings base is shrinking and management confirmed this with a subdued earnings outlook for all operating groups.
Still, the broker thinks this is not another Babcock & Brown in the making, with the stock offering good leverage into an eventual market recovery. Outperform maintained.


Deutsche Bank 19/11/2008 1 Buy $40.00 49.8%
Post the group's 1H result the broker sees the model as bent but not broken as both the capital and liquidity positions remain ok.
While the stock looks cheap in its view and supports the broker's Buy rating it accepts there are few obvious positive catalysts at present.