what the analysts are saying, page-12

heres a more detailed report on this - pity i had to read thru all that other dribble about management that i,ve seen over and over again - sure you have some valid points - just not sure if it's worth repeating it a few thousnad times - must be something more productive you can find for a change surley.

Swine flu mutation, drug resistance feared
The Press Last updated 05:00 22/06/2009SharePrint Text Size Relevant offers
Swine flu may become resistant to Tamiflu if it mingles with one of this season's influenza strains, experts warn.

World-renowned Canterbury virologist Dr Lance Jennings said one of the two strains of seasonal influenza circulating this year was resistant to Tamiflu.

It was possible this resistant strain would mutate with the influenza A (H1N1) virus and affect Tamiflu's ability to medicate swine flu, Jennings said.

"Viruses do mutate ... The only thing we can do is be prepared."

If swine flu became resistant to Tamiflu, New Zealand had stocks of another drug, Relenza, that could combat influenza, he said. Relenza was developed before Tamiflu and its chemical makeup made it tougher for viruses to develop resistance.

"If A (H1N1) became resistant to Tamiflu, that would be bad. But the worst-case scenarios are Avian flu mutating, so it can spread between humans, or the swine flu developing into a more deadly form," Jennings said.

Environmental Science and Research virologist Sue Huang, head of the World Health Organisation national influenza centre in Upper Hutt, also voiced concerns.

"Viruses are notoriously unpredictable and strains change constantly ... if there was mixing of the novel virus with other A/H1N1 strains circulating, such as in a person infected with both strains, the novel virus could take on resistant characteristics," she said.

Seriously ill swine flu patients flocked to Canterbury's new influenza centre over the weekend. More than 142 people had visited the Christchurch assessment centre since it opened on Friday. All were "reasonably or seriously" unwell, with symptoms such as high fever, rasping coughs and breathing problems, centre managers said.

Yesterday, the Ministry of Health said a rise in cases of serious illness was inevitable. The number of confirmed cases nationwide is 258 an increase of 42 since Friday. More than 200 of those cases had been reported in the past week, mainly in the three major cities.

Last night Canterbury had 67 confirmed cases. However, there was only one other case in the Nelson-Marlborough region in the South Island.

Canterbury Primary Pandemic Group co-ordinator Phil Schroeder said the screening centre was seeing only those with more serious flu symptoms.

Concerned Cantabrians had been calling the free information and triage line, meaning only those who needed to see a doctor came to the centre, he said.

A 30-year-old woman remained in a critical condition in Wellington Hospital last night with swine flu, and underlying medical problems.

Ministry of Health director of public health Dr Mark Jacobs said while most cases had been mild to moderate, over the coming weeks and months there would be a big increase in the number and severity of cases.

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If you think you have swine flu, ring 0800 373