I personally do not see how BHP can be higher than now in 6...

I personally do not see how BHP can be higher than now in 6 months time. They are heading into a period of production cuts and drastically lower commodity prices = significantly lower profits. This is not just a re-trace in the context of a super cycle. Have a look at historical commodity cycles, every fall of this magnitude has been followed by at least 5 years of depressed prices (in the majority of cases 20+ years). Don't fall in love with these cyclical plays.

The current BHP price does not provide a good enough reward for the risk that it's not different this time. This is why i think industrials and overseas shares will outperform australian/commodity shares over the next few years.

Do you truly think Govt infrastructure spending is going to replace the greatest credit bubble of all time. USD credit grew from approx $20 trillion in 2003 to over $50 trillion in 2007, with a lot this flowing into emerging markets. Sure govt's are having a fair crack but it pales in comparison to the type of impetus we have seen from credit over the last few years.

I am not a technical analyst, so who's to say it wont go up in the short term, but in 6-12 months time im pretty confident i will be correct.

I think a bottom will come in (for the whole market) some time between late Jan-Apr as the market absorbs earnings shocks from Q408 and Q109. Consensus earnings numbers on average are still way too high. I would be interested in whether any of you technicians out there (robbbbb, volt, 9 lives etc) can provide a supporting arguement from a technical stand point to my views. thanks