Hi Skip and Grandcaruso.
Where intelligent people disagree, it often is a matter of semantics and/or situation. Hot Copper readers range from day trades to long-term investors, and within that spectrum there is another spectrum, risk-averseness. My line of logic is intended for a long-term investor who, in this instance, is prepared to take a risk, and have a flutter. If a reader is in a different situation, then my views are not apt.
The starting point of my logic is that the worst case for CPR's share price is that it could drop to zero. In contrast, it could survive, and emerge from the current bad situation to shine. If it follows the latter path, the share could in time be worth 50 cents, $1 or even $1.60 a few years down the track. Where one thinks CPR's SP will stand in three years time comes down to subjective probability, and in my case I see CPR being more likely to be ten times its current value three years hence, than it will be worth zero, and because I can absorb the loss, I have had a flutter.
As for dividend, I would not be too fussed if it paid no dividend for a year, but I think it will pay 2 or 3 cents.
I'll come back to this thread in later months, and have my say.
If you want a safer punt in the consumer durable area, look at RRA. It has no debt, and it is counter-cyclical, doing well when people are strapped for cash, or credit constrained. I hold RRA as a counter balance to the riskier CPR.
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