I would like to make a little comment if not offence to any one.
Quoted, "I don't know if CCV did more business in QLD than in NSW. We cannot tell from CCV's annual reports which are the most reliable data source. So it's purely speculation."---->this started "don't know" and finished with conclusion, "purely speculation".
By 30/06/2013, there was roughly 129 stores in Australia. You said QLD occupied a quarter, roughly 30 stores. At the same time, there was only 18 stores in NSW. You said that the $20m loss would be the worst case scenario. 18 stores v $23m, 30 stores v $20m. Does the ratio look like???
I would like to leave the most part of your post to other people to comment.
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