what to do, page-13

"common fella's where's the love gone?" *

CSM is flat everywhere. I think the collapse in the ETS and Copenhagen has sucked the life out of it for the moment. The sector is hostage to politics and community opinion.

Will it stay that way? I don't think so. But then again, I'm just another mug punter.

I know Hardmano was citing how the sector needed a takeover to reignite market interest .... and thats true to a point but Exxons buyin to unconventional gas in the US - only a few months ago has been all but forgotten. Why is that?
That was big news. IMO it's because the wider markets as nervous as they come. You only have to casually follow the writings of Bill Bonner et al to get a sense of the tidal surges that are at play - lots of people are primed for a second wave of selling - so they have trigger fingers.

Edgar is certainly right this is a long term buy. He may have been right about the reserves upgrade already being factored in - but then again - the broader swing in sentiment and the loss of momentum in the climate change debate might have just colluded to make his analysis seem true. Whatever the reason news that a few years ago created a surge of interest is now met with a yawn.

It's only the grail of a t******r that keeps many of us in play. So what do you do? We all take positions on the balance of probabilities - probabilities that we frame based on our own research, intuition and sense of market sentiment.

For my money you can't deny the import of RBS Morgans comment today comparing the Gunnedah and Cooper basins.

It seems however we have to wait for a more ducks to line up ... wait for the elusive concept plan, wait for more contracts, wait for more yeild data, wait for news of a pipeline (imo this would be would be explosive), and finally, wait for the inevitable offer from STO.

You know I got the wife back to work after the kids school holidays yesterday - which was no small feat. I tell you when in come to money she's as cynical as they come .. and she's still a true believer.

When I invest these days I take a big position early and then wait. I'd rather catch big fish than keep pulling in sardines - but we all have different priorities if your really impatient then of course, bow out and cast your line elsewhere.



good luck to all

sg


* quoting the illustrious GB on the BUY threads