Hi Jim the next few weeks will be interesting with the AUD/USD pairing as there has been talk this week from 3 members of the FOMC commitee that an interest rate hike is still on the cards for the September 8th meeting, markets are currently giving around 52% chance of a rate hike, historically there hasn't been a rate hike in the US without the markets giving a 60% chance first. On 26th August Janet Yellen head of the FOMC will give her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, traders are watching closely to see if her stance is Hawkish/Dovish/Neutral if she hints to a possible rate hike in September expect to see strengthening of the US $ and then further strengthening of the US$ if said rate hike happens. If she is Dovish, I dont see much upward room for the AUD so you stand to gain more by holding out but this is all IMO and im definately no expert...just throwing in my 2 cents.
Currently most analysts believe the AUS $ to be fair value to possibly overvalued as the RBA is aiming for a weaker dollar to support the broader Australian economy.
The AUD/USD pairing has been on a long term downtrend since 2011 and is currently testing its resistance so the next few months will be crucial to see if it continues that trend or breaks free.
I guess alot depends on whether you believe the Australian economy is out of trouble or not.
Theres plenty of Analysts reports out there, I believe ANZ changed their outlook from a 2016 close of 0.68$US and they are now predicting the AUD to finish at 0.74$US for the year, I would suggest reading as many up to date Analyst reports as you can and try to take an average forecast from that.
Ive attached the monthly chart for the Pair below, all the best
please ignore my sentiment at the bottom, I am currently looking to Sell the AUD and BUY USD but this a short term outlook and can change quickly
