Let us look at what has been announced and make reasonable guesstimates for the March Qtr:
(a) Approximately 9000 ozs produced to 31st Dec
(b) Forecast of 60K to 70K ozs for FY still current
(c) $480/oz margin (Matilda margin A$480/oz or US$370/oz: today's ann)
This is on average 65K ozs production Jan to June
Or say 30K ozs for the Mar Qtr
IE: @$14.4 mil margin
(d) outgoings forecast for Mar Qtr: $38 mil (see Dec Qtr Ann)
(e) Revenue for Mar Qtr incl hedge: $50 Mil (cashflow positive) (11K x $1709 hedge + 19K x $1600)
So the difference between today's announced margin & revenue assumptions is $2 mil
Let's settle for the average: $13 mil positive cash flow.
Will this send the SP to 61c+?
IMO, it will.
We'll know at the end of April.
