hotnik, you're going on the assumption that the cost of conventional Electricity generation is not going to increase from current levels.
Also the economies-of-scale in Efficiency that 1,000's of Fuel Cells can achieve (preferably 100,000's) could potentially produce a CHEAPER Kw/hour of Electricity generation for a Utility than conventional coal-fired generation AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE. This is after taking into consideration the $$$ cost due to Efficiency LOSSES incurred with Centralised Energy VS the cost savings achieved via Decentralised Energy (much higher Energy Efficiency = LESS WASTE).
My personal opinion is the above scenario is what the big Utilities are calculating now (and even Live testing BlueGens with the above in mind). Simonmag has also pontificated along these lines on this thread.
Yes it's true that CFU need to get the cost per Unit down, but they are already focusing on this. And when they do, we will see greater volumes sold.
The cost of both the Units AND the natural gas consumption can be split between the Utility and the Customer (on terms dictated by the Utility). In this scenario above, the Utility is producing extremely Efficient Electricity, with less water, coal and Oil consumed than Centralised Energy. The cost savings achieved by the Utility can go towards the Capital cost of the Fuel Cell (as the efficiency gains are enormous).
You're forgetting about concepts like Peak Oil. When the World's Oil Supply goes into Terminal Decline, then it becomes ALL ABOUT ENERGY EFFICIENCY. And we're not talking small 10% gains here. You have to go with the MOST EFFICIENT technologies which are viable.
It's all about getting more Energy output from less Energy input. Centralised Energy is too inefficient.
CFU Price at posting:
10.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
